ODA Market Highlights - 28/09/2018

USDA Reports Have Little Influence on Markets

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News about grain markets was limited during the session with traders focused on the release of two USDA reports at the end of European trading. U.S. quarterly inventories for wheat and maize were higher than traders anticipated. As expected, wheat stocks as of 1 September exceed 2017 levels while maize stocks are approximately 4MT less than last year. According to the Small Grain Summary, wheat production was revised slightly higher to 51.3MT (+200KT) while traders had forecast a slight decline. Despite this news, wheat prices made gains shortly after the reports were published.

In contrast, maize prices were under pressure on both sides of the Atlantic as harvests arrive in the northern hemisphere. In France, FranceAgriMer noted that 21% of maize acreage had been harvested as of 23 September.

On the oilseeds complex, prices for soybeans sank as Euronext closed following publication of the USDA's quarterly inventory reports. Forecast to be sharply higher by traders, soybean inventories were above expectations as of 1 September. Analyst Safra y Mercado estimates that Brazil's soya acreage will increase 3.4% during the 2018-2019 campaign to 36.382Mha. Given yield trends, this may raise production to 121MT versus 119.4MT in 2017-2018.

Despite the continued rise of palm prices and a slump in the euro-dollar exchange rate, rapeseed prices finished the session near equilibrium.