ODA Market Highlights - 13th May 2019

UK prices have fallen in-line with sharply lower world grain markets.

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Friday’s USDA report gave the first impression of the 2019/20 marketing season. For wheat, officials forecast world production at 777.5Mt, some 50Mt above 2018/19. Ending stocks were put at 293Mt, 18Mt above the current crop. China is seen having 50% of the world’s wheat stocks.

Markets on either side of the Atlantic slipped back on the bearish report, with CME soybean futures now trading below $8/bu and Kansas City HRW wheat below $4/bu. Chicago wheat has now fallen by over $1/bu (£28/t) since early February as the outlook for world grains and oilseeds next season becomes increasingly bearish. Added to this fundamentally burdensome outlook, the trade spat between China and US intensified on Friday, with both sides seemingly firmly entrenched. The next piece of important information to be released is today’s crop conditions report.

In the UK, timely and widespread rains have satisfied immediate crop needs and as such our domestic 2019 crop output may be larger than it appeared only a fortnight ago. Grain prices have fallen sharply, partly on the improved outlook, but also in-line with sharply lower world grain markets.