ODA Market Highlights - 10th May 2019

Mr Trump has chosen to take the Chinese negotiations to the wire.

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Mr Trump has chosen to take the Chinese negotiations to the wire in his latest move against the Chinese, regarding their ongoing trade spat. The Chinese have responded in kind......."we will reciprocate".

Is Europe next in-line?

Outside markets are worried about the potential consequences, and are sliding hard. Stocks and energy prices are sharply lower and soybeans and corn futures are also under severe pressure as analysts consider the possible implications for global trade in these crops. Wheat has suffered less then corn/beans, as China has far less importance (nearly none) in its global trade flows.

The FOA released their latest new crop World balance sheet. Highlights include

  • Total cereal production up 2.7% on 2018, a new record. (This includes rice)
  • Wheat production up 5%
  • Corn production up 2.3%
  • Barley production up 5.4%

However, global total cereal usage is also projected to be higher, up some 1.5% on 2018, led by the animal feed and industrial elements.

While slightly less bullish, stocks/Use ratios are, to the large part, relatively unchanged. The global grains situation remains tight.

The USDA report arrives too late for this daily newsletter, but will set the scene of how US, EU and global grains markets react next week.