ODA Market Highlights - 10/10/2018

Rapeseed Sinks in the Wake of the Soya Complex and Oils

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On the oilseeds market, despite plentiful rainfall forecast this week across the Midwest, the soya complex sank in Chicago. Indeed, the trade war between China and the United States has returned to center stage. U.S. President Donald Trump repeated the threat of new tariffs totaling an additional $267 billion on Chinese imports. At the same time, according to the crop progress report, 32% of soya acreage had been harvested as of last week in the United States versus 36% last year and versus the five-year average of 42%.

In terms of palm oil, the MPOB's report showed a 14% production increase to 1.85MT between September and August and an inventory gain of 1.45% to 2.45MT. At the same time, initial export estimates for the first ten days of October suggest a nearly 15% decline in the export dynamic compared to the same period in September. Palm prices tumbled on this news.

Rapeseed ended the day lower in the wake of soya, oils, and a rise in the euro-dollar exchange rate.

Grain prices fell slightly in Chicago on the eve of the USDA report. U.S. maize harvesting is not behind schedule despite last week's heavy rain (34% of acreage has been harvested versus 21% last year), which put slight pressure on U.S. prices.

Wheat prices slid somewhat in Chicago as U.S. winter wheat planting made good progress (30% versus 23% last year). At the same time, the Russian ministry estimates wheat production to be between 68MT and 69MT; however, the market already seems to have integrated this figure. On Euronext, wheat prices also felt some pressure from a slight uptick in the euro during the session. This movement was limited by FranceAgriMer's downward revision of French ending stock by 100KT thanks, among other factors, to an improved outlook for exports to non-EU countries.