ODA Market Highlights - 30th May 2019

Another day of green screens, as corn delays support

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More price volatility for domestic and international markets today. Overnight Chicago futures started off a sea of red, with UK values shedding £3/t in sympathy, at one point. However, values recovered later in the session. The same theme continues to dominate price action, that being adverse planting conditions in the US that is preventing speedy seeding progress. The market is trying to guess how much land will be switched from corn to soybeans and, with the clock ticking, how much land will not now be planted at all, as farmers chose to take crop insurance instead.
Elsewhere, Russia’s wheat crop is being forecast slightly larger by one private analysts. This follows the EU Commission’s latest up-tick in EU28 wheat production forecast recently made.
DEFRA /AHDB will release analysis tomorrow morning, that aims to understands why there is such a large discrepancy between the RPA and DEFRA’s crop area forecasts. This could affect the supply & demand balance sheet. As such, we could find additional, domesticmarket based price volatility at the end of the week. Contrasting weather conditions for the UK over the weekend, with northern counties benefitting from rains, while the south and east are forecast to be dry with temperatures in the mid-twenties. As we get closer to harvest we will be undertaking our annual production survey to help form our balance sheet calculation.
Today, ODA advised clients to finish-off their old crop grain marketing and make a start with some new crop sales.